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Vulnerabilities went parabolic. Severity scores stopped being a plan.

In a few months of 2026 the industry disclosed more high- and critical-severity flaws than it used to in a full year, and AI-assisted discovery is the main reason given. The chart below is the real count, every CVE in the National Vulnerability Database by the month it was published. What that changes for a federal program, and the method Ausper Labs uses to answer the only question that matters: which of these can hurt our systems, and can we prove the control holds?

Ausper Labs · October 19, 2026 · Research · Cyber · ProvenPosture™

Every security team knows the firehose. In 2026 it changed shape. On April 7, Anthropic announced Claude Mythos Preview and said the model had already found thousands of high-severity zero-days across every major operating system and browser, disclosed and fixed before the announcement. Nine weeks later the Forum of Incident Response and Security Teams raised its forecast for the year to roughly 66,000 CVEs, up from the 59,427 it had projected in February, and named AI-assisted discovery as the main reason. By mid-October, NVD had already published 80,985 CVEs for 2026, past that full-year forecast with ten weeks to go. Epoch AI, which tracks disclosures from the largest vendors, recorded a June total more than three times the monthly record that stood before that announcement.

Those are other people's numbers. Here are ours. We pulled every record in the National Vulnerability Database, bucketed it by the month it was published, and kept the ones rated High or Critical under the best available CVSS v3 or v4 score. No vendor filter, no sampling, nothing modeled. The method and the source files are listed at the end of this page, and the current month is left out because it is not finished.

High and critical CVEs published per monthAll vendors, National Vulnerability Database, Jan 2022 to Sep 2026. Severity is the best available CVSS v3/v4 rating, NVD's own where it has one.
7,807
High + critical CVEs published in Sep 2026
1,409
Monthly average, 2022 through 2025
5.5×
Peak month (Sep 2026) against that average
0.7%
Share of the last 12 months' high + critical CVEs that reached CISA's KEV

What the chart says, and what it does not

The shape is the story. From 2022 through 2025 the industry published about 1,409 high and critical CVEs a month, with noise. The peak so far is Sep 2026: 7,807 in one month, 5.5 times that average. In Sep 2026, the latest full month, that came to roughly 257 a day, every day, before anyone reads a single one.

Three honest caveats, because this chart is easy to over-read. First, a CVE is a disclosure, not an attack; the curve measures how fast flaws are being found and written up, not how insecure any product is. Second, reporting practice moves the line: the Linux kernel became a CVE numbering authority in February 2024 and began assigning identifiers to thousands of backported fixes, and FIRST notes that CVEs from numbering authorities of last resort grew more than thirty-fold year over year. Third, NVD has not finished analyzing every record, so where NVD has no score of its own we count the one the reporting organization supplied. None of that flattens the curve. All of it argues against reading any one point as gospel.

What the chart cannot tell you is the part that matters: how many of these are being used against anyone. For that there is a second series.

Vulnerabilities added to CISA's Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog per monthCatalog version 2026.10.16, 1,748 entries, by the month CISA added them.

CISA's Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog lists the flaws with evidence of active exploitation. Over the last twelve months it added 308 entries against 43,403 high and critical CVEs published, about 0.7 percent. Since January 2022, 1,419 catalog additions against 213,105 CVEs of every severity: 0.67 percent. FIRST made the same point in its June update under the headline that exploitable risk is flat even as volume climbs. Google's Threat Intelligence Group counted 90 zero-days exploited in the wild in 2025, up from 78 the year before. The exploited slice is growing. It is still a slice.

The firehose is real. The risk is in a thin, moving layer inside it, and the only way to find that layer on your own systems is to look.

Why CVSS triage breaks at this volume

Most vulnerability programs still run on a severity score. A CVSS 9.8 opens a ticket with a short deadline; a 7.2 waits. That worked when the queue was hundreds. At 257 high and critical disclosures a day it produces a backlog nobody can clear and a false sense that the top of the list is the dangerous part. Three things are wrong with the score as a plan.

  1. CVSS measures potential, not probability. It describes how bad exploitation could be in the abstract. It says nothing about whether an exploit exists, whether anyone is using it, or whether the vulnerable component is reachable on your network. The FIRST EPSS model exists precisely because the two are different questions.
  2. Federal deadlines are not written in CVSS. Binding Operational Directive 22-01 requires agencies to remediate vulnerabilities on CISA's catalog by the due date CISA sets. The directive is about evidence of exploitation, not severity. A program that triages by score is optimizing for a number the directive does not use.
  3. Most of the list cannot touch you. A finding on a library you do not run, a port you do not expose, or a host behind a control that already blocks the path is a line in a report, not a risk. But already blocks the path is a claim. Until someone tests it, it is a hope with a screenshot.

So the useful question for every one of those 7,807 monthly disclosures is not how bad. It is: does this touch a system we own, is anyone using it, does the control we are counting on actually hold, and can we prove all three to the person who signs the authorization? That question has a method.

The Ausper ProvenPosture™ method

ProvenPosture™ is Ausper's name for a four-move operating loop. The name is ours; the moves are public, because a defense that only works when nobody else knows it is not a defense. The loop runs continuously. Posture is something you observe, not something you attest once a year.

Map

Know every system, what it depends on, what data it holds and who owns it, as a graph that stays current. When a CVE lands, "which of our systems does this touch?" is a query that returns in seconds, not a meeting. If you cannot answer it in seconds you are triaging blind, whatever the score says.

Rank

Exploitation first, severity last. CISA's catalog, the EPSS probability, threat intelligence on who is using it, and whether the vulnerable component is reachable from where an adversary stands. The firehose becomes a short list with a reason beside every line.

Prove

Test that the control you are counting on actually blocks the path: the segment, the configuration, the compensating control, the patch. Capture the result as telemetry into the authorization record, so the evidence an assessor sees is the same evidence the operator saw. A control nobody has tested is not a control.

Close

Fix or compensate inside the deadline that applies, BOD 22-01's due date for catalog entries and your own service level for the rest, and let the record close itself. The plan of action is a view of live data, not a spreadsheet someone remembers to update.

Then back to Map, because the graph changed while you were closing. The loop is the product. Any single move done once is a project; all four done continuously is a posture you can prove on demand, which is what authorization is turning into.

How Ausper runs it today

The method is only interesting if there is machinery behind it. There is, and it lives in Ausper Labs. Each piece covers a move of the loop; together they are the operating model we are building for mission customers.

Map and Close

Next-Generation GRC

Our real-time GRC console: cyber posture captured as it changes, systems affected realized through a dependency graph in seconds, evidence flowing from pipelines into the record, and a plan-of-action burndown that moves because findings do. In beta, built in the open with mission customers on ServiceNow IRM and compliance-as-code; the figures on its page illustrate the operating model, not a customer deployment.

Rank

AusperRiskIQ™

Our risk-intelligence methodology: how findings become ranked, defensible decisions an authorizing official can act on, with exploitation and exposure weighed ahead of raw severity. The methodology document is available on request.

Prove

AccelSecure™

Our accelerated-ATO framework, built for the world where the reviewer is fast and the schedule is set by whether your evidence survives contact with an assessor. Evidence engineered as telemetry, continuous-monitoring design, and the 13-page whitepaper on how authorization is becoming a state you hold rather than a document you submit.

Carry it across

AscendBridge™

Our low-to-high pipeline framework: the same proven posture promoted from unclassified to classified environments on existing infrastructure, aligned to ICD 503, NIST 800-53 and FedRAMP, so the proof travels with the system.

Where it is in the field. The operating model is being built in a live enterprise ServiceNow risk and efficiency engagement, where the gap analysis is delivered and implementation is underway, and in the Next-Generation GRC prototype we demonstrate on request. We do not publish customer names or outcome figures until a customer agrees to it, and we will not invent them here. What we will say is what the method changes on day one: the answer to "what does this CVE touch?" moves from a meeting to a query; the evidence an assessor sees stops being a screenshot and becomes the pipeline's own output; and the remediation clock is set by exploitation, which is what the directive measures, not by a score, which it does not.

Why this lives in Ausper Labs

Labs is where Ausper works on what is next and turns it into things that ship: the named frameworks, AccelSecure™, AscendBridge™ and AusperRiskIQ™; the Next-Generation GRC console; the research behind pages like this one; and the emerging-technology work in photonics and quantum. ProvenPosture™ is the operating model that connects the cyber pieces. When one of them changes, the others change with it, and this page is where the evidence gets updated. See everything Labs is working on.

The data behind the charts

Both charts are built from primary sources by a script whose method is fixed and public. Every record in NVD's JSON 2.0 feeds for CVE years 2019 onward, bucketed by the month NVD published it; rejected records excluded; a record counts as High or Critical by its best available CVSS v4.0, v3.1 or v3.0 base severity, NVD's own rating when it has one and otherwise the reporting organization's; High is 7.0 to 8.9 and Critical is 9.0 to 10.0. Catalog additions are CISA's Known Exploited Vulnerabilities entries by the date CISA added them. Data refreshed 2026-10-19; the current month is omitted as incomplete.

Table view: every month, every value
MonthCVEs publishedHighCriticalHigh + criticalAdded to KEV
Sep 202614,9366,2841,5237,80743
Aug 202612,2555,2771,8187,09531
Jul 20269,7684,1721,3545,52626
Jun 20267,8553,2899634,25223
May 20266,8272,7556863,44121
Apr 20265,7052,1915542,74531
Mar 20266,1052,5106483,15826
Feb 20264,6131,6224432,06528
Jan 20264,2921,6194402,05917
Dec 20255,4611,8514002,25120
Nov 20253,0131,0162601,27611
Oct 20254,2341,4203081,72831
Sep 20254,3151,2912861,57716
Aug 20253,4991,1213701,49115
Jul 20253,7281,2983671,66520
Jun 20253,6711,1092901,39920
May 20253,9781,1513911,54224
Apr 20254,0301,4543621,81615
Mar 20253,9971,3924191,81132
Feb 20253,6731,1622671,42927
Jan 20254,2521,5083351,84314
Dec 20243,3921,1213071,42816
Nov 20243,9701,4373701,80722
Oct 20243,5531,2283671,59517
Sep 20242,5138912571,14825
Aug 20242,8969953291,32419
Jul 20243,1111,0862831,36914
Jun 20243,0741,0083261,3349
May 20244,9991,9184092,32714
Apr 20243,6151,2943551,64910
Mar 20243,3011,1163871,50310
Feb 20242,7769923861,3789
Jan 20242,5859575041,46121
Dec 20232,6379674601,42711
Nov 20232,4449873511,33818
Oct 20232,6631,0734161,48918
Sep 20232,1387753581,13319
Aug 20232,4748744351,3098
Jul 20232,2999063271,23316
Jun 20232,3598933101,20324
May 20232,4029433361,27919
Apr 20232,2938133491,16217
Mar 20232,4839533951,34818
Feb 20232,0808523201,17214
Jan 20232,0588293121,1415
Dec 20222,3869003571,2579
Nov 20221,9567683061,07410
Oct 20221,8417643311,09512
Sep 20222,1849823351,31724
Aug 20222,3148754661,34123
Jul 20221,9267783221,1003
Jun 20222,1308663831,24948
May 20222,0158263951,22183
Apr 20222,0429223251,24745
Mar 20222,0417644071,171226
Feb 20221,9337873291,11632
Jan 20222,0158212301,05140

Common questions

Is a CVSS 9.8 always urgent?
No. CVSS describes how bad exploitation could be in the abstract, not whether an exploit exists, whether anyone is using it, or whether the vulnerable component is reachable on your network. Federal remediation deadlines under Binding Operational Directive 22-01 attach to CISA's Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog, which lists what is actually being exploited, not to a severity score. ProvenPosture™ ranks by exploitation, reachability and the systems affected first, and uses severity as the tiebreaker.
What is ProvenPosture™?
Ausper's name for a four-move operating loop, run continuously: Map every system and its dependencies; Rank disclosures by exploitation and reachability rather than severity; Prove that the control you are counting on actually blocks the path, with the evidence captured into the authorization record; Close inside the deadline that applies and let the record update itself. The name is Ausper's; the moves are public on this page.
Does this replace a vulnerability scanner?
No. Scanners find; the method decides and proves. ProvenPosture™ sits on top of the scanner, the configuration database and the GRC record and connects them, so a finding becomes a ranked, tested, closed item instead of a line in a report.
Where do the chart's numbers come from?
Every record in the National Vulnerability Database, bucketed by the month it was published, counted as High or Critical by its best available CVSS v3 or v4 base severity, NVD's own rating where it has one and otherwise the reporting organization's; rejected records are excluded and the current month is left out because it is incomplete. Catalog additions are CISA's Known Exploited Vulnerabilities entries by the date CISA added them. The refresh script and its method are published with the site.

Sources

Primary sources where they exist, dated. We cite the data we charted and the announcements we quoted, not commentary about them.

  1. National Institute of Standards and Technology, National Vulnerability Database, JSON 2.0 data feeds and CVSS severity ratings.
  2. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, Known Exploited Vulnerabilities Catalog, and Binding Operational Directive 22-01.
  3. Forum of Incident Response and Security Teams, 2026 Vulnerability Forecast update, June 15, 2026, and the Exploit Prediction Scoring System.
  4. Epoch AI, Cyber Vulnerabilities data explorer, CVEs from major vendors by severity and publication month.
  5. Google Threat Intelligence Group, 2025 zero-day exploitation review.
  6. Cloud Security Alliance, research note on the economics of autonomous vulnerability discovery.
  7. Anthropic, Project Glasswing, announcing Claude Mythos Preview, April 7, 2026.

Related reading

Put this to work

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